Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2407 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2407 CLT 08:38 → SEA 11:27 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 751 CLT 17:40 → SEA 20:25 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2407 American Flight history →	CLT 08:38	SEA 11:27	21%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 506 American Flight history →	CLT 12:35	SEA 15:19	22%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1833 American	CLT 15:56	SEA 18:39	32%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 751 American Flight history →	CLT 17:40	SEA 20:25	43%	11%	1.1%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 39m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	7h 34m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	8h 25m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON