Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2758 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2758 CLT 08:32 → SFO 11:03 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2410 CLT 17:48 → SFO 20:14 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2758 American	CLT 08:32	SFO 11:03	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1489 American	CLT 13:13	SFO 15:45	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2411 American Flight history →	CLT 15:43	SFO 18:14	33%	10%	0.8%	58%
AA 2410 American Flight history →	CLT 17:48	SFO 20:14	33%	13%	1.2%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SFO 10:00DL 693	7h 00m	91%	74%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → SFO 11:28UA 342	7h 59m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:48 → SFO 10:43DL 361	7h 43m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON