Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5303 CLT 10:57 → SHV 12:28 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6412 CLT 20:53 → SHV 22:12 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5303 PSA	CLT 10:57	SHV 12:28	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 225 SkyWest	CLT 12:42	SHV 14:04	20%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 6412 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 20:53	SHV 22:12	25%	10%	0.9%	58%
AA 5948 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 10:03	SHV 11:46	20%	10%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON