Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 783 at 11:03, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 783 American Flight history →	CLT 11:03	SJU 14:50	26%	5%	0.8%	85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 32m	98%	81%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996	8h 15m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 3156	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	8h 34m	100%	80%
American Details →	CLT 05:54 → PHL 07:24AA 1838	2h 10m Philadelphia	PHL 09:34 → SJU 13:42AA 614	7h 48m	98%	78%
United Details →	CLT 06:00 → IAD 07:29UA 6279 · flown by Mesa	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021	6h 34m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SJU 13:11DL 1913	7h 11m	93%	78%
American Details →	CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20AA 1165	3h 58m Miami	MIA 11:18 → SJU 14:07AA 1613	8h 52m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	8h 07m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON