tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:50 → LAX 18:55AA 1499 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 22:19 → SMF 23:55AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest 10h 05m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 22m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 15m Denver DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662 9h 37m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLT 17:40 → SLC 19:57DL 2070 1h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582 7h 30m 92% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:26 → SMF 21:27DL 682 10h 05m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 2h 45m Chicago ORD 11:47 → SMF 14:29AA 1906 9h 43m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038 47m Chicago ORD 11:47 → SMF 14:29AA 1906 7h 47m 71% 51%
AmericanDetails → CLT 19:28 → LAX 21:30AA 2055 49m Los Angeles LAX 22:19 → SMF 23:55AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 55% 48%
AmericanDetails → CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 7h 07m 44% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON