Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 358 American Flight history →	CLT 18:21	SNA 20:27	30%	6%	1.1%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707	9h 16m	97%	84%
American Details →	CLT 07:35 → DFW 09:25AA 1005	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465	9h 07m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	9h 31m	98%	76%
American Details →	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:39AA 1656	7h 58m	96%	76%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:41 → SNA 10:58AA 1939	8h 13m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	9h 41m	100%	76%
American Details →	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	3h 09m Phoenix	PHX 14:13 → SNA 15:40AA 2463	8h 59m	99%	74%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304	7h 52m	85%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 14:38 → PHX 16:02AA 1711	55m Phoenix	PHX 16:57 → SNA 18:29AA 2471	6h 51m	73%	54%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	54m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → SNA 14:22AA 1916	7h 40m	75%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON