Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1452 American Flight history →	CLT 10:25	SRQ 12:24	23%	6%	1.4%	75%
AA 2604 American Flight history →	CLT 19:30	SRQ 21:23	31%	9%	1.4%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196	3h 52m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109	5h 35m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115	4h 18m	94%	77%
American Details →	CLT 18:35 → MIA 20:43AA 400	2h 11m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	5h 24m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 3156	51m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104	3h 43m	81%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON