Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2497 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2497 CLT 08:38 → STL 09:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2686 CLT 16:36 → STL 17:38 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2497 American Flight history →	CLT 08:38	STL 09:36	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	CLT 12:13	STL 13:10	18%	4%	0.7%	68%
AA 459 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	STL 23:58	19%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 2686 American Flight history →	CLT 16:36	STL 17:38	25%	7%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON