Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2004 at 12:32, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2004 American	CLT 12:32	STT 16:24	20%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 06:04 → IAD 07:34UA 6279 · flown by Mesa	1h 17m Dulles	IAD 08:51 → STT 12:58UA 1443	6h 54m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	7h 49m	98%	73%
American Details →	CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20AA 1165	2h 45m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	7h 47m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	53m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	5h 57m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON