Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1975 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1975 CLT 08:33 → TPA 10:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3051 CLT 17:56 → TPA 19:38 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1975 American	CLT 08:33	TPA 10:23	15%	3%	3.2%	no record
AA 436 American Flight history →	CLT 10:33	TPA 12:25	20%	4%	1.5%	83%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	CLT 12:29	TPA 14:19	23%	5%	1.5%	80%
AA 1982 American	CLT 13:57	TPA 15:47	24%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 545 American	CLT 15:44	TPA 17:33	30%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 1773 American Flight history →	CLT 21:39	TPA 23:33	32%	8%	1.5%	64%
AA 2022 American Flight history →	CLT 19:37	TPA 21:23	35%	9%	1.3%	68%
AA 3051 American	CLT 17:56	TPA 19:38	39%	10%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON