Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2657 at 12:32 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2657 American	CLT 12:32	TUL 14:12	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2662 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	TUL 19:37	27%	8%	1.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 13m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	8h 49m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → TUL 10:16DL 2754	5h 16m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 3156	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620	4h 59m	93%	79%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837	5h 25m	99%	77%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:43 → TUL 12:02AA 2352	7h 17m	100%	71%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	7h 05m	91%	71%
American Details →	CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:19 → TUL 17:38AA 2830	7h 21m	97%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON