Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5041 at 11:00, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5041 PSA	CLT 11:00	TVC 13:22	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	98%	87%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	100%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON