Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5232 CLT 21:29 → TYS 22:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5584 CLT 16:29 → TYS 17:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5232 PSA	CLT 21:29	TYS 22:42	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
OH 5368 PSA	CLT 20:02	TYS 21:18	18%	7%	1.6%	no record
OH 5584 PSA	CLT 16:29	TYS 17:43	19%	7%	2.1%	no record
AA 5947 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:12	TYS 08:31	10%	2%	0.0%	90%
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:15	TYS 10:38	12%	6%	0.0%	88%
AA 5831 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:24	TYS 15:42	18%	11%	0.0%	82%
AA 5909 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:35	TYS 21:58	35%	14%	0.0%	65%
AA 5957 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 18:17	TYS 19:38	45%	12%	3.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON