Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2469 CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2892 CMH 17:03 → ATL 18:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2469 Delta Flight history →	CMH 06:00	ATL 07:35	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	CMH 11:11	ATL 12:49	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 3165 Delta Flight history →	CMH 08:45	ATL 10:19	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2909 Delta Flight history →	CMH 07:15	ATL 08:52	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	CMH 14:43	ATL 16:22	9%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	CMH 17:03	ATL 18:43	14%	6%	2.2%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON