tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 984 Southwest CMH 10:21 AUS 12:29 5% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Chicago ORD 07:14 → AUS 10:05UA 1336 5h 35m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 14m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 19m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 25m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:15 → ATL 08:52DL 2909 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 7h 36m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:45 → ATL 10:19DL 3165 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 8h 05m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → CMH 09:00 → DEN 10:09UA 728 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 8h 58m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → CMH 09:00 → ORD 09:36UA 466 2h 11m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 6h 41m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:17UA 2205 4h 00m Houston IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859 7h 54m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON