Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4642 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4642 CMH 07:09 → BOS 09:26 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest MQ 3922 CMH 14:05 → BOS 16:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4642 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:09	BOS 09:26	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 5663 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:13	BOS 08:20	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:23	BOS 15:43	11%	4%	0.6%	68%
MQ 3922 Envoy	CMH 14:05	BOS 16:14	19%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON