tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4554 Southwest CMH 05:37 BWI 06:59 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1242 Southwest CMH 15:41 BWI 17:15 10% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic 1h 11m Boston BOS 09:31 → BWI 11:13DL 5668 · flown by Republic 5h 00m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 35m Chicago ORD 07:44 → BWI 10:37UA 1269 5h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 7h 07m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 16:34 → MSP 17:44DL 2550 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 6h 39m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:45 → ATL 10:19DL 3165 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 7h 04m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:43 → ORD 07:18AA 3446 · flown by Envoy 2h 36m Chicago ORD 09:54 → BWI 12:59AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 6h 16m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → CMH 11:11 → ATL 12:49DL 1479 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267 6h 34m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON