Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2987 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2987 CMH 08:01 → DFW 09:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1492 CMH 16:56 → DFW 18:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2987 American	CMH 08:01	DFW 09:49	13%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 1279 American Flight history →	CMH 11:46	DFW 13:25	15%	6%	1.0%	80%
AA 1492 American Flight history →	CMH 16:56	DFW 18:44	24%	10%	1.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON