Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 3458 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 3458 CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G7 4383 CMH 19:47 → EWR 21:46 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3458 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:40	EWR 08:33	4%	1%	1.9%	90%
UA 3457 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:58	EWR 10:00	5%	2%	1.6%	90%
YX 3528 Republic	CMH 09:10	EWR 11:17	6%	2%	1.9%	no record
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:11	EWR 15:04	20%	4%	1.5%	77%
DL 8953 Delta	CMH 22:54	EWR 00:27	20%	6%	1.1%	no record
YX 3516 Republic	CMH 15:58	EWR 18:06	26%	8%	1.8%	no record
G7 4383 GoJet	CMH 19:47	EWR 21:46	27%	7%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON