tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4455 at 07:46, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4455 Southwest CMH 07:46 FLL 10:30 13% 2% 2.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:48 → IAD 07:17UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Dulles IAD 08:22 → FLL 11:09UA 1825 5h 21m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 51m Chicago ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13UA 1421 5h 43m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:00 → LGA 09:49DL 5691 · flown by Republic 1h 26m New York LGA 11:15 → FLL 14:18DL 1181 6h 18m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:08 → DTW 09:24DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 46m Detroit DTW 13:10 → FLL 16:14DL 1294 8h 06m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → CMH 08:05 → PHL 09:45AA 4711 · flown by Republic 1h 53m Philadelphia PHL 11:38 → FLL 14:42AA 1465 6h 37m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:06 → FLL 11:03DL 1271 5h 03m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:17UA 2205 2h 00m Houston IAH 10:17 → FLL 14:06UA 2670 7h 36m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:15 → ATL 08:52DL 2909 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 7h 12m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON