Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 3430 at 05:48, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3430 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:48	IAD 07:18	2%	1%	0.6%	95%
UA 4387 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 14:53	IAD 16:22	31%	17%	5.4%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 07:15 → ATL 08:52DL 2909	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	7h 11m	99%	90%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 2277	6h 25m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CMH 16:34 → MSP 17:44DL 2550	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082	5h 07m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CMH 11:11 → ATL 12:49DL 1479	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	6h 03m	99%	82%
United Details →	CMH 09:00 → ORD 09:36UA 466	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128	7h 07m	99%	81%
United Details →	CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33UA 3458 · flown by Republic	1h 33m Newark	EWR 10:06 → IAD 11:31UA 1618	4h 51m	98%	81%
United Details →	CMH 10:55 → ORD 11:31UA 622	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 14:51 → IAD 17:49UA 587	6h 54m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON