Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5656 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 5656 CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 5650 CMH 18:20 → JFK 20:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5656 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:03	JFK 09:00	6%	2%	1.0%	90%
AA 4808 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:03	JFK 11:02	6%	2%	1.2%	87%
DL 5649 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:38	JFK 14:49	16%	4%	1.1%	80%
YX 4399 Republic	CMH 14:29	JFK 16:34	17%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 5650 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 18:20	JFK 20:17	23%	6%	1.1%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON