tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1253 Southwest CMH 06:31 LAS 07:48 4% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3032 Southwest CMH 17:01 LAS 18:39 21% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:48 → IAD 07:17UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 45m Dulles IAD 09:02 → LAS 11:09UA 1323 8h 21m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Chicago ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19UA 574 6h 49m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 30m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 9h 58m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:17UA 2205 3h 38m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 43m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CMH 16:34 → MSP 17:44DL 2550 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 21:42 → LAS 23:07DL 1442 9h 33m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 6h 32m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:08 → DTW 09:24DL 5812 · flown by Republic 2h 51m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 8h 20m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON