Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 10:53, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 354 United Flight history →	CMH 07:15	LAX 09:06	12%	3%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974	7h 06m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:15 → ATL 08:52DL 2909	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 57m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic	2h 35m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	10h 50m	100%	87%
United Details →	CMH 05:48 → IAD 07:17UA 3430 · flown by Republic	2h 13m Dulles	IAD 09:30 → LAX 12:05UA 657	9h 17m	100%	86%
American Details →	CMH 08:05 → PHL 09:45AA 4711 · flown by Republic	3h 29m Philadelphia	PHL 13:14 → LAX 15:57AA 2944	10h 52m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:08 → DTW 09:24DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	9h 27m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic	2h 08m New York	JFK 11:08 → LAX 13:51DL 1905	9h 48m	99%	84%
American Details →	CMH 05:58 → PHL 07:45AA 2867	3h 15m Philadelphia	PHL 11:00 → LAX 13:46AA 2408	10h 48m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa	46m Houston	IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483	7h 25m	64%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON