Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5691 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 5691 CMH 08:00 → LGA 09:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 5669 CMH 14:23 → LGA 16:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5691 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:00	LGA 09:49	6%	2%	1.2%	86%
YX 4625 Republic	CMH 07:00	LGA 09:00	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 4381 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:37	LGA 15:33	16%	6%	1.7%	77%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:23	LGA 16:17	17%	7%	1.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON