Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1314 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1314 CMH 05:51 → MCO 08:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1612 CMH 21:14 → MCO 23:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1314 Southwest	CMH 05:51	MCO 08:05	3%	1%	5.5%	no record
WN 2762 Southwest	CMH 08:06	MCO 10:31	7%	2%	6.1%	no record
WN 1260 Southwest	CMH 12:56	MCO 15:21	11%	4%	1.8%	no record
WN 3995 Southwest	CMH 16:11	MCO 18:36	14%	6%	1.8%	no record
F9 1612 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 21:14	MCO 23:44	18%	8%	4.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON