Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3667 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3667 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 07:00	MIA 09:44	12%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 4085 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 18:19	MIA 21:02	26%	7%	0.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 05:48 → IAD 07:17UA 3430 · flown by Republic	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 47m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	1h 32m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 48m	98%	82%
American Details →	CMH 06:07 → DCA 07:24AA 3861 · flown by Envoy	2h 38m Washington	DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401	6h 51m	98%	79%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	51m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → MIA 11:24UA 1358	5h 54m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	5h 03m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	CMH 16:34 → MSP 17:44DL 2550	58m Minneapolis	MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187	6h 52m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:15 → ATL 08:52DL 2909	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 52m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:00 → LGA 09:49DL 5691 · flown by Republic	1h 26m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	6h 24m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON