Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 3524 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 3524 CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1182 CMH 17:55 → ORD 18:27 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3524 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:09	2%	2%	0.8%	94%
YX 4563 Republic	CMH 05:27	ORD 05:51	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 622 United Flight history →	CMH 10:55	ORD 11:31	12%	5%	0.9%	89%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:43	ORD 07:18	13%	3%	1.0%	78%
UA 466 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	ORD 09:36	14%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 10:28	ORD 10:56	14%	4%	1.0%	89%
YX 3716 Republic	CMH 12:34	ORD 13:07	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3572 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 08:49	ORD 09:30	16%	5%	1.0%	76%
UA 2653 United	CMH 08:36	ORD 09:02	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3815 Envoy	CMH 15:18	ORD 15:51	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 3465 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:17	ORD 16:51	20%	6%	1.2%	75%
MQ 3917 Envoy	CMH 20:55	ORD 21:22	21%	6%	1.3%	no record
MQ 572 Envoy	CMH 08:16	ORD 08:34	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 6347 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 13:13	ORD 13:45	21%	10%	1.3%	47%
UA 1293 United	CMH 14:24	ORD 14:37	27%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1182 United Flight history →	CMH 17:55	ORD 18:27	33%	9%	0.9%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON