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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 05:48, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:48 → IAD 07:17UA 3430 · flown by Republic 58m Dulles IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930 7h 50m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 2h 37m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 51m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:08 → DTW 09:24DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761 9h 06m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 37m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → SAN 11:25DL 843 8h 25m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:15 → ATL 08:52DL 2909 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 53m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:58 → PHL 07:45AA 2867 54m Philadelphia PHL 08:39 → SAN 11:20AA 1621 8h 22m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 55m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 6h 47m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa 51m Houston IAH 19:55 → SAN 21:32UA 1911 7h 31m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON