Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:31, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1597 United Flight history →	CMH 07:00	SFO 09:06	17%	6%	0.6%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 05:48 → IAD 07:17UA 3430 · flown by Republic	2h 30m Dulles	IAD 09:47 → SFO 12:34UA 1773	9h 46m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SFO 16:25DL 756	8h 32m	98%	81%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116	7h 49m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic	2h 45m Boston	BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860	11h 21m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic	3h 50m New York	JFK 12:50 → SFO 16:03DL 363	12h 00m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:08 → DTW 09:24DL 5812 · flown by Republic	2h 51m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 09m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	7h 36m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 09:00 → ORD 09:36UA 466	49m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543	7h 14m	73%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON