Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 755 at 12:31, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 755 Southwest	CMH 12:31	STL 13:10	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224	6h 57m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868	3h 51m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CMH 16:34 → MSP 17:44DL 2550	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609	6h 29m	99%	88%
American Details →	CMH 05:58 → PHL 07:45AA 2867	1h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 09:01 → STL 10:37AA 1739	5h 39m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:15 → ATL 08:52DL 2909	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	6h 15m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:45 → ATL 10:19DL 3165	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700	6h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	50m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400	4h 06m	93%	85%
American Details →	CMH 07:09 → BOS 09:26AA 4642 · flown by Republic	1h 35m Boston	BOS 11:01 → STL 13:12AA 4727 · flown by Republic	7h 03m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON