Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3977 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3977 COS 06:55 → DEN 07:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2777 COS 17:39 → DEN 18:38 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3977 Southwest	COS 06:55	DEN 07:43	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5291 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 06:00	DEN 07:05	5%	3%	0.6%	89%
OO 4656 SkyWest	COS 05:35	DEN 06:26	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5400 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 10:23	DEN 11:38	9%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 2743 Southwest	COS 12:19	DEN 13:18	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 4675 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 11:31	DEN 12:45	13%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 4696 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:12	DEN 08:02	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 5634 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 09:20	DEN 10:33	15%	7%	0.6%	85%
UA 1610 United	COS 13:27	DEN 14:33	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4800 SkyWest	COS 12:35	DEN 13:25	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 4691 SkyWest	COS 08:47	DEN 10:01	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4690 SkyWest	COS 14:57	DEN 16:13	19%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 4719 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 17:07	DEN 18:20	21%	9%	0.7%	68%
WN 2777 Southwest	COS 17:39	DEN 18:38	26%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON