Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 6221 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day OO 6221 COS 05:46 → DFW 08:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1170 COS 16:08 → DFW 19:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6221 SkyWest	COS 05:46	DFW 08:51	9%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 782 American Flight history →	COS 08:01	DFW 10:56	15%	5%	1.3%	92%
OO 6197 SkyWest	COS 13:22	DFW 16:21	23%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1552 American Flight history →	COS 10:17	DFW 13:08	25%	7%	1.1%	71%
AA 1170 American Flight history →	COS 16:08	DFW 19:09	30%	12%	1.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON