tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1285 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1285 Southwest COS 05:39 LAS 06:49 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1044 Southwest COS 17:24 LAS 18:34 25% 13% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h behind Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 06:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5291 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 4h 07m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:12 → DEN 08:02UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 12m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 13:30 → LAS 14:38UA 493 6h 18m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → COS 11:31 → DEN 12:45UA 4675 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Denver DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424 6h 40m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → COS 18:16 → SLC 20:09DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → LAS 21:58DL 1662 4h 42m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:30 → IAH 11:03UA 4029 · flown by Mesa 52m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 6h 43m 85% 73%
UnitedDetails → COS 12:06 → IAH 15:35UA 4030 · flown by Mesa 1h 12m Houston IAH 16:47 → LAS 18:06UA 2190 7h 00m 83% 60%
AmericanDetails → COS 08:01 → DFW 10:56AA 782 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:18 → LAS 13:06AA 777 6h 05m 92% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON