tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 06:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5291 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 5h 40m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Denver DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732 6h 34m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → COS 06:50 → ATL 11:54DL 1074 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825 8h 17m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → COS 17:07 → DEN 18:20UA 4719 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 5h 52m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:30 → IAH 11:03UA 4029 · flown by Mesa 3h 25m Houston IAH 14:28 → MSP 17:06UA 1818 8h 36m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → COS 08:01 → DFW 10:56AA 782 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:31 → MSP 17:07AA 2406 8h 06m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → COS 12:11 → ORD 15:56UA 1398 2h 54m Chicago ORD 18:50 → MSP 20:08UA 2865 6h 57m 97% 58%
AmericanDetails → COS 16:08 → DFW 19:09AA 1170 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 6h 49m 91% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → COS 12:11 → ORD 15:56UA 1398 46m Chicago ORD 16:42 → MSP 18:06UA 1935 4h 55m 59% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON