Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3635 at 08:20, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3635 Envoy	COU 08:20	CLT 11:28	19%	11%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	COU 06:30 → ORD 08:11AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	3h 39m Chicago	ORD 11:50 → CLT 14:54AA 3021	7h 24m	97%	72%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 41m	97%	67%
American Details →	COU 12:03 → DFW 13:43AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:01 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	6h 39m	96%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON