Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5857 at 09:14, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5857 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 09:14	DEN 10:35	17%	13%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	COU 06:30 → ORD 08:11AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:41AA 2363	6h 11m	93%	74%
United Details →	COU 10:49 → ORD 12:30UA 4605 · flown by GoJet	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	8h 24m	100%	71%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:48AA 2359	5h 53m	94%	64%
American Details →	COU 12:03 → DFW 13:43AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:57 → DEN 16:12AA 1832	5h 09m	88%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON