tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 518 at 15:46, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 518 Southwest CVG 15:46 AUS 17:39 13% 4% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record CVG 08:10 AUS 09:50 10% 7% 0.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 25m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 50m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 7h 42m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 28m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 40m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 5h 59m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442 2h 04m Houston IAH 10:15 → AUS 11:19UA 1823 5h 44m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → CVG 05:52 → EWR 07:59UA 3423 · flown by Republic 1h 47m Newark EWR 09:46 → AUS 12:36UA 1238 7h 44m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy 1h 53m Chicago ORD 08:25 → AUS 11:18AA 1121 6h 18m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 16:04 → MIA 18:49AA 3554 · flown by Envoy 51m Miami MIA 19:40 → AUS 21:45AA 2629 6h 41m 57% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON