tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4890 Southwest CVG 06:41 BNA 07:03 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1039 Southwest CVG 12:46 BNA 13:03 9% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 21m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:00 → DCA 08:33DL 5229 · flown by Endeavor 1h 37m Washington DCA 10:10 → BNA 11:20DL 5708 · flown by Republic 5h 20m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 6h 03m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic 1h 08m Boston BOS 09:30 → BNA 11:21DL 2141 6h 21m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 5h 49m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:44 → BNA 09:25DL 2682 4h 06m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:54DL 954 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → BNA 15:10DL 2101 5h 10m 92% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 18:29 → DTW 19:50DL 5071 · flown by Endeavor 1h 09m Detroit DTW 20:59 → BNA 21:35DL 2126 4h 06m 72% 59%
AmericanDetails → CVG 08:16 → CLT 09:50AA 429 50m Charlotte CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295 3h 53m 69% 59%
DeltaDetails → CVG 12:35 → DCA 14:07DL 5221 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m Washington DCA 15:10 → BNA 16:15DL 5777 · flown by Republic 4h 40m 65% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON