Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5790 CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 4761 CVG 15:28 → BOS 18:01 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5790 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 06:00	BOS 08:22	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 3807 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 07:10	BOS 09:25	6%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 5601 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 11:52	BOS 14:09	11%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 5789 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 17:40	BOS 20:13	13%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 4761 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 15:28	BOS 18:01	14%	8%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON