tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1300 Southwest CVG 05:38 BWI 07:29 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 406 Southwest CVG 14:51 BWI 16:30 7% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 3h 29m Minneapolis MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357 7h 54m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Boston BOS 09:31 → BWI 11:13DL 5668 · flown by Republic 5h 13m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 2h 39m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 28m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 7h 07m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:52 → BOS 14:09DL 5601 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Boston BOS 17:05 → BWI 19:02DL 5644 · flown by Republic 7h 10m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy 3h 22m Chicago ORD 09:54 → BWI 12:59AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 6h 59m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 6h 49m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 17m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 57m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON