Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5111 CVG 18:23 → CLT 20:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1533 CVG 13:10 → CLT 14:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5111 PSA	CVG 18:23	CLT 20:11	17%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2349 American	CVG 06:59	CLT 08:20	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 429 American Flight history →	CVG 08:16	CLT 09:50	20%	4%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
AA 430 American Flight history →	CVG 11:15	CLT 12:49	23%	5%	0.8%	60%
AA 1533 American	CVG 13:10	CLT 14:43	24%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON