Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1666 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1666 CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3725 CVG 17:09 → DEN 18:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1666 United Flight history →	CVG 08:00	DEN 09:04	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 479 United Flight history →	CVG 15:29	DEN 16:32	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 250 Southwest	CVG 16:46	DEN 17:58	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3725 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 17:09	DEN 18:29	19%	4%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON