Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3157 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3157 CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1992 CVG 17:15 → DFW 18:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3157 American Flight history →	CVG 06:00	DFW 07:32	14%	4%	1.1%	79%
F9 1757 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 11:00	DFW 12:44	16%	5%	0.9%	72%
AA 807 American Flight history →	CVG 08:04	DFW 09:40	18%	5%	1.0%	83%
AA 2610 American Flight history →	CVG 11:48	DFW 13:15	20%	6%	1.0%	79%
AA 1992 American	CVG 17:15	DFW 18:50	28%	10%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON