Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 3423 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 3423 CVG 05:52 → EWR 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest YX 3696 CVG 16:42 → EWR 18:31 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3423 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 05:52	EWR 07:59	4%	2%	1.9%	97%
YX 3478 Republic	CVG 07:39	EWR 09:42	6%	3%	1.6%	no record
YX 3684 Republic	CVG 11:47	EWR 13:33	14%	5%	2.0%	no record
YX 3696 Republic	CVG 16:42	EWR 18:31	23%	7%	2.0%	no record
DL 5069 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 06:30	EWR 08:29	10%	2%	1.8%	90%
UA 4192 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 12:00	EWR 14:04	24%	18%	1.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON