tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:09, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 7h 17m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 7h 24m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 2h 46m Detroit DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082 5h 28m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 32m Chicago ORD 11:06 → IAD 14:05UA 1486 7h 05m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → CVG 05:52 → EWR 07:59UA 3423 · flown by Republic 2h 07m Newark EWR 10:06 → IAD 11:31UA 1618 5h 39m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → CVG 13:46 → ATL 15:20DL 3149 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 6h 37m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → CVG 11:15 → CLT 12:49AA 430 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA 6h 32m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 53m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON