Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2915 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:16	LAS 08:16	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
F9 3521 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 09:05	LAS 10:05	17%	5%	0.9%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 22m	98%	88%
United Details →	CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442	3h 44m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	9h 38m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:45 → JFK 08:50DL 5044 · flown by Endeavor	2h 40m New York	JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807	10h 16m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	99%	82%
United Details →	CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:04UA 1666	2h 18m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	7h 24m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	6h 53m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466	7h 56m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 09:00 → ATL 10:30DL 3076	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → LAS 14:50DL 549	8h 50m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CVG 08:16 → CLT 09:50AA 429	53m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → LAS 12:23AA 2470	7h 07m	74%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON