Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 393 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:00	LAX 08:30	9%	2%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 03m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic	2h 33m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	11h 03m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:10 → AUS 09:50DL 5005 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	9h 38m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:54DL 954	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974	6h 59m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	8h 15m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	8h 55m	100%	83%
American Details →	CVG 07:53 → PHL 09:43AA 5578 · flown by PSA	3h 31m Philadelphia	PHL 13:14 → LAX 15:57AA 2944	11h 04m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 16:00 → DTW 17:17DL 5456 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852	7h 04m	71%	60%
American Details →	CVG 06:30 → MIA 09:08AA 3638 · flown by Envoy	47m Miami	MIA 09:55 → LAX 12:24AA 3288	8h 54m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON