Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 511 CVG 08:26 → MCO 10:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 2548 CVG 11:11 → MCO 13:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 511 Delta Flight history →	CVG 08:26	MCO 10:30	10%	4%	5.3%	87%
F9 1750 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 21:37	MCO 00:15	12%	6%	2.8%	77%
F9 3624 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 09:28	MCO 11:42	13%	7%	6.5%	91%
WN 1303 Southwest	CVG 11:17	MCO 13:30	13%	3%	4.6%	no record
F9 2548 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 11:11	MCO 13:40	17%	6%	6.4%	73%
DL 5440 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 11:20	MCO 13:36	9%	0%	0.0%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON