tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1291 Southwest CVG 09:01 MDW 09:30 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 290 Southwest CVG 17:46 MDW 18:10 13% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → ATL 07:30DL 2441 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417 5h 42m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 5h 32m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:57 → ATL 18:33DL 3169 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 18m 97% 77%
FrontierDetails → CVG 12:53 → ATL 14:33F9 1846 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MDW 18:02F9 2779 6h 09m 94% 71%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor 3h 55m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → CVG 14:15 → DTW 15:33DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor 2h 34m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 5h 14m 94% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:00 → DTW 17:17DL 5456 · flown by Endeavor 50m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 3h 29m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON